2022 Governor Races Odds & Senate Influence Analysis

November 7, 2022

2022 Governor Races Odds & Senate Influence Analysis

The opposing strategies in one of the nation’s most important Senate races serve as an example of how, as legislative battles for the midterm elections have become more competitive, races for the top of the ticket are beginning to take on increasing importance. Below you will find the 2022 Governor Races Odds and our analysis of how these elections could influence who controls the U.S. Senate.

2022 Governor Races Odds & Analysis

Both Democrats (+180) and Republicans (-240) are attempting to navigate the crosscurrents by positioning their candidates to either ride the wave of a preferred gubernatorial candidate or to keep a safe distance in order to avoid being pulled under by the drag of a fellow party member. The polling shows that Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania will likely decide who controls the Senate.

The calculation is straightforward. To keep control of the Senate, Democrats must prevail in three of these four contests. Republicans have an easier road to climb since they just need to prevail in two of these four contests. According to JazzSports, there are specific problems impacting each state.


2022 Arizona Governor Race Odds courtesy of Jazzsports

Kari Lake (R) -500

Kattie Hobbs (D) +350

Arizona is the race that is simplest to comprehend. The state’s previous two Senate elections have been won by Democrats, who hadn’t done so since 1988. They are propelled by rising support among White voters with college degrees and a solid Hispanic base in the Phoenix suburbs. (One of the largest Native American populations in the nation also aids them.)

Read our 2022 Arizona Governor Race Analysis.


2022 Nevada Governor Race Odds courtesy of Jazzsports

Steve Sisolak (D) +250

Joe Lombardo (R) -340

After Barack Obama easily won it in two consecutive elections ten years ago, Nevada appeared to be moving toward the Democratic Party. Republicans have suffered narrow losses in the state’s previous two presidential contests, including a 2.4-point defeat in 2020. Republicans have benefited from a shift in support among Hispanic voters as well as a sizable White voting base without a college degree. During the Covid-19 epidemic, when national Democrats were far more inclined to call for Covid safeguards, the state’s tourism-based economy suffered.

Read our 2022 Nevada Governor Race Analysis


2022 Pennsylvania Governor Race Odds courtesy of Jazzsports

Josh Shapiro (D) -550

Doug Mastriano (R) +375

In order to gain a sizable portion of White voters without a college degree in Pennsylvania, a Great Lakes swing state, Democrats must do well overall. In 2016, Hillary Clinton became the first Democratic presidential candidate to lose the state since Michael Dukakis did so in 1988. This is a demographic that has been avoiding Democrats. In contrast to Nevada’s rebounding gambling business and Arizona’s disproportionate impact from border difficulties, Pennsylvania’s major non-inflation story is a crime. The crime rate in Philadelphia, the state’s largest city by population, has increased recently.

Read our 2022 Pennsylvania Governor Race Analysis


2022 Georgia Governor Race Odds courtesy of Jazzsports

Brian Kemp (R) -650

Stacey Abrams (D) +440

In contrast to the other three states, Georgia requires a majority in order for the candidate with the most votes to prevail. If not, a runoff will be held in December. A runoff appears to be quite likely at this moment, but that isn’t the only element that sets Georgia apart.

Of all these important races, the Black population in the Peach State is by far the greatest. Georgia is the most Republican of the aforementioned states, although Democrats have made a return in this deep Southern state as a result of a growing Black population and the migration of White college-educated voters to the party in the Atlanta region. The margin of victory was the narrowest for Biden in any state he won in 2020.

2022 Georgia Governor Race Analysis

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