The 2022 midterm elections will deliver some answers when it comes to the balance of power in the United States. While Democrats currently hold the White House and Congress by the slimmest majority, the elections could change a lot of things, especially governors races in Georgia And Kansas.
This year is important because the outcomes will give insight into where the country is heading two years before the 2024 presidential election. Moreover, some experts believe that if the Democratic Party of President Joe Biden performs poorly, he might not seek reelection two years from now.
Washington is getting a great deal of attention; however, the different races for governor also have a lot of twists. This time around, 36 governorships are up for grabs. Some of those races are really close, and they are called toss-ups.
The battle in Kansas between Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly and Republican Attorney General Derek Schmidt is one of those, and it is difficult to predict the outcome.
In Georgia, it is the rematch of the 2018 election. Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams is trying to unseat Republican Gov. Brian Kemp.
The two elections get quite a bit of coverage because of potential national implications. So, what are the polls saying in those coveted races? Which candidates are ahead at the moment?
Brian Kemp shows strength in reelection campaign against Stacey Abrams
For four years, Democrats across the country have treated Abrams as a genuine political rockstar. In 2018, the liberal political sensation came within 1.4 percentage points of becoming the first Black female governor in the United States.
In that time span, she continued to build a national profile and raise money for her various organizations. During the 2020 campaign for president, she was even considered a real possibility for the post of vice president on the ticket with Mr. Biden. The job eventually went to Kamala Harris, a then-Senator from California.
A rematch against Kemp seemed like a foregone conclusion. However, the race is not unfolding as many expected. Abrams’s campaign is having trouble catching fire.
The sitting governor has been able to get the support of fans of former President Donald Trump after months of controversy over the results of the 2020 presidential election.
With less than four weeks to go, Kemp is leading comfortably in the polls. Many organizations no longer see the race as a toss-up and have moved it into the lean Republican category.
This is the landscape before the two candidates face off in two debates this month. The first one is set for October 17. The second one will follow suit on October 30.
In the average polling compiled by FiveThirtyEight, Kemp is leading by 5.6 percentage points. The lead might be enough to avoid a runoff in January.
In Georgia, if no candidate reaches 50%, there will be a runoff. Is the race over? Far from it, in recent weeks, Abrams has improved her standing a bit in the polling.
She will have to keep going at it to make the election really competitive in the final weeks of the campaign.
According to the political futures from JazzSports.ag, Kemp has -650 odds of getting reelected as the governor of Georgia. Abrams is at +440. In terms of implied probability, a Kemp win is set at 86%.
In short, the race for governor in Georgia is not as close as many expected it to be. However, Kansas is telling a different story.
Laura Kelly holds slim lead in fight to hold governorship versus Derek Schmidt
The Democratic governor and her Republican opponent will face off in a crucial debate on Wednesday. It is the last time for either side to score some important points.
Kelly came to power in 2018, and for months she appeared like the underdog in the polling data. Many experts felt that Kansas, a red state, was ready to put a Republican back in the governor’s mansion.
However, as the campaign started intensifying and voters began to pay more attention, the incumbent took back the lead. This has happened in early August, and two months later, people making predictions say Kelly is a slight favorite to keep her job.
In the polling average from FiveThirtyEight, Kelly is ahead by 2.5 percentage points. It is not a comfortable lead, but it is more than enough for Kelly to stay in her post.
Is it certain that Kelly will retain power after November? No, Kansas remains a red state that Trump won by a wide margin in 2020. The real estate mogul bested Biden there by 15 percentage points.
Kelly is running a very shrewd campaign based on her many accomplishments. She claims that she was able to balance the budget by working with a Republican state legislature. She is also pushing forward the low unemployment rate and her work to improve the education system in her state.
Schmidt is running as a strong conservative who will defend personal freedoms. He says that Kelly mismanaged the state during the COVID-19 pandemic by shutting down schools and businesses.
Because of the state’s natural Republican lean, JazzSports.ag still sees Schmidt as the favorite with -150 odds of winning. Kelly is at +120.
This means bookmakers at JazzSports give Schmidt a 60% probability of winning. This is a reasonable stance, but Kelly still has enough cards in her hand to finish on top.
Can Democrats win in this environment?
It is an obvious fact the current political environment is very different from that of 2018. With soaring inflation and a crisis at the Southern border with Mexico, Republicans have a lot of issues going for them. Democrats are playing defense and hoping that abortion can save them.
However, Trump’s omnipresence in the right-leaning party is still a considerable drag nationally for a movement that is trying to move forward after the events of January 6, 2021.
Some candidates like Kelly have been able to keep their race focused on local issues. Abrams has had more difficulties in Georgia because Kemp is quite a successful governor.
The betting markets are bullish about Kemp, whereas Kelly is in for a real fight. The next few weeks are going to deliver some surprises.
That is why it is crucial to know the different odds and have the right data in order to make the correct call.
2022 US Gubernatorial Elections Odds for Georgia & Kansas
| Georgia Governor | Kansas Governor |
| (R) Brian Kemp: -650 | (R) Derek Schmidt -150 |
| (D) Stacey Abrams +440 | (D) Laura Kelly +120 |
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