The 2020 U.S. presidential election was one of the most exciting events in history for bettors around the globe. 2024 is shaping to deliver even more drama and intensity. Trump is on the move as Biden declines in polls, but the fundamentals of the race are stable. So let’s talk about the US 2024 Presidential Predictions.
Biden and Democrats lose the plot ahead of 2022 midterms
After winning in a surprisingly close race against incumbent former President Donald Trump Sr., Joe Biden started his first term with a great deal of support from the American people.
In an interesting turn of events, the Democratic Party took control of Washington by holding the U.S. House of Representatives and capturing the Senate and the White House.
President Biden was able to keep his party united to get the American Rescue Plan Act across the finish line. The package helped his poll numbers, and many quickly saw him as a favorite for reelection.
Moreover, the opposition was also contributing to improving Biden’s chances of retaining the White House. The Republican Party was busy trying to distance itself from Mr. Trump’s focus on election fraud.
The contrast was favorable for Democrats, on one side, a party that was focused on governing, and on the other end, a popular figure with the Republican base pushing conspiracy theories.
US 2024 Presidential Prediction
In the first few months, the betting odds were with the Democrats. When Mr. Biden was not leading, his vice president, Kamala Harris, had the favors of the betting crowd.
Many bettors do not see Biden running for reelection in 2024 because he will be 81. However, there is no official indication that is his intention.
Biden’s honeymoon phase lasted until the summer when a couple of developments changed his standing in the polls.
The delta variant and a huge increase in COVID-19 cases brought the pandemic back to the forefront.
The president also faced a wave of new migrants crossing the southern border, and his administration did not seem to have a handle on the matter.
The third thing, which really changed the narrative for Biden, was the withdrawal from Afghanistan after 20 years. The hasty exit marked a form of divorce in the public surveys.
Donald Trump is still the headliner in the Republican Party for 2024
Those three issues, coupled with some anxiety over the real state of the economy, suddenly improved Mr. Trump’s image for many people. With better polling numbers and some nostalgia, Trump has +500 odds of winning the presidency in 2024.
The ex-leader of the free world is at +400 when it comes to becoming the Republican nominee, according to the latest political futures from Jazz Sports.
There is no competition for Trump when it comes to the Republican Party. Former Vice President Mike Pence is at +1750 to win the race for president, while he is at +600 for his party’s nomination.
Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley is at +500 for the nomination and +1200 for the presidency.
In case Trump does not run, bettors believe that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis could be an interesting figure to watch.
He is at +500 to become the Republican nominee for president and +1000 for president. While those three politicians could make the Republican nomination process a real race, many experts say that Trump will be the most important factor on the right.
A recent Quinnipiac poll claimed that nearly 80 percent of right-leaning voters want the real estate mogul to run for president again in 2024 despite all of his baggage. Trump, for all of his flaws, is in symbiosis with his party.
Observers say that at the moment, he is leaning towards another bid for the White House.
However, he is known to take surprising turns when least expected.
The idea of running is probably good for his brand, but a rerun of the 2020 race could be brutal for the former reality TV star.
Trump’s odds improved with Biden’s decline, but 2024 is still very far, and the president has enough time to recover.
Conventional wisdom is adamant, Trump is going to run, and he will probably get his old job back.
Some in the media have even suggested that if the Republican Party nominates a different candidate with fewer issues, the 2024 election will be a landslide for the right.
Biden and Harris remain strong
However, bettors are still not convinced by this scenario. The two parties sit at -105 to win the race for the White House.
Harris at +300 and Biden at +350 are ahead when it comes to winning the presidency. The narrative may have changed, but the fundamentals of the race for president are still the same.
The two Democratic politicians are at +250 for the presidential nomination of their party.
Bettors do not anticipate another Democratic figure to play a huge role in the party’s presidential primary even if Biden decides not to run. They mostly see Biden or Harris as the standard-bearer for their side.
Moreover, some experts predict that the political landscape will change considerably in the next two years. It is expected that Republicans will take back the House and possibly the Senate.
In a situation like this one, Biden will have two years to present himself as the adult in the room against a Congress that is incapable of governing.
Something similar happened in 2010 when Republicans dominated the midterms against then-President Barack Obama.
For two years, he pushed popular policies in the face of an intransigent Congress and was able to win reelection comfortably against Mitt Romney.
Trump almost benefited from this dynamic in 2020 after losing badly in the 2018 midterms.
The next few years will also give Biden more time to implement some of the laws that he has signed.
The March stimulus package or plans like the Advanced Child Tax Credit may become more popular as Americans get used to them.
The Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, took close to 10 years to become popular.
US 2024 Presidential Prediction
Another element to take into consideration going into the 2024 presidential race, Republicans only won the popular vote once in the last eight elections for president.
The country is divided, and the Republicans seem to have an electoral college edge for now, but savvy bettors know that change is the only constant.
While it is easy and tempting to only focus on Biden’s declining poll numbers, in a polarized nation, the election for president will always be a 50-50 proposition.
Betting demands all factors be considered before making a move, and in political predictions, this exercise is even more critical.
Odds to win the US 2024 Presidential Election by Jazz Sports
| Kamala Harris | +300 |
| Joe Biden | +350 |
| Donald Trump Sr | +500 |
| Ron DeSantis | +1000 |
| Nikki Haley | +1200 |
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