This year appears to be important for American politicians. Despite the focus of many on the upcoming congressional midterm elections in 2022, there are 36 states holding gubernatorial elections this year. This time we are going to analyze the Michigan & Florida Governor Races for this year.
In the coming weeks, up until Election Day (and beyond), the Eagleton Center on the American Governor will offer analysis on various aspects of the gubernatorial races, occasionally focusing on national trends and other times on particular races in an effort to present a more comprehensive picture of these crucial contests.
2022 US Gubernatorial Polls Analysis
The first comprehensive analysis of the gubernatorial races since January has determined that five of the 36 gubernatorial races slated for 2022 are so close as to be considered tossups. Currently, four Democrats and one Republican are in charge of these five seats. Three of the five competitive races—Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin—had recently experienced incredibly close presidential contests. Tossup contests are held in reliably blue Oregon and strongly red Kansas, respectively. The races in both of those states are extremely close as a result of particular circumstances. The other four races that are currently rated as tossups that were on the tossup list in January are Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Georgia, which is now classified as leaning Republican, and Michigan, which is now classified as leaning Democratic, have both been removed off the list of close races since January. In Oregon, where the race was trending Democratic in January, it is currently a toss-up. Republicans have 28 of the governorships, while Democrats hold 22 of them. The following states have been sorted from most likely to vote Republican to most likely to vote Democratic under the tossup category.
Michigan & Florida Governor Races Analysis
2022 Florida Governor Race Analysis
DeSantis defeated his Democratic opponent Heather Beaven to win his first election to Congress in 2012. He founded the Freedom Caucus during his time in office and supported President Donald Trump. Desantis made a point of supporting Trump throughout his 2018 gubernatorial race. He selected state lawmaker Jeanette Nunez as his running companion after capturing the Republican primary in August. A machine recount was required because of the tight results in the general election between DeSantis and Andrew Gillum, the mayor of Tallahassee, who was the Democratic candidate. By a margin of 0.4%, DeSantis was declared the victor.
Charlie Crist (Rep)
Charlie Cristis an American lawyer and politician who represented Florida’s 13th congressional district in the United States from 2017 to 2022. From 2007 to 2011, he was also Florida’s 44th governor. Since 2012, Crist has been a part of the Democratic Party. He started off as a Republican before switching to independent status in 2010 and then to Democrat status in 2012. In 2010, Crist again sought the U.S. Senate. He initially had the lead in the polls for the Republican nomination, but Marco Rubio eventually overtook him. He resigned from the Republican Party in April of that year in order to compete as an independent in the general election, losing to Rubio in a three-way contest. Kendrick Meek, the Democratic nominee, received 20% of the vote, while Rubio received 49%. In January 2011, Crist’s stint as governor came to a conclusion.
2022 Michigan Governor Race Analysis
The governor of Michigan is Gretchen Whitmer, a member of the Democratic Party. She started in her position on January 1, 2019. She will be out of the office on December 31, 2022. The Democratic Party candidate for governor of Michigan, Whitmer, is seeking reelection. In the general election on November 8, 2022, she is a candidate. On August 2, 2022, she won the Democratic primary.
Dixon declared her bid to unseat Democratic incumbent Gretchen Whitmer as the Republican party’s nominee for governor of Michigan in the 2022 election in May 2021. In a Republican primary debate, Dixon swore allegiance to Trump; and in a discussion in May 2022, Dixon said “Yes” in response to the question of whether or not he thought Trump had won the state of Michigan’s general election in 2020. She avoided inquiries about whether or not she still adhered to that viewpoint in later appearances. With respect to her political position, She favors outlawing all abortions, excluding those that are strictly essential to preserve the life of the pregnant mother. She intends to establish Education Savings Accounts, which will allow children to save money for usage at a variety of institutions.
Comparison between the Governors
Governor Kay Ivey took over on April 10, 2017, the day Robert J. Bentley resigned. She won a full term in 2018 with 59.5% of the vote in an independent election.
Mike Dunleavy was elected governor in 2018 with 51.4% of the vote. He indicated that he would run for reelection on August 13, 2021. 2018 saw Governor Doug Ducey win a second term with 56% of the vote. In 2022, a term restriction imposed by the Arizona Constitution will preclude him from seeking reelection a third time.
Asa Hutchinson, the governor, was re-elected in 2018 with 65.3% of the vote. In 2022, a term limit imposed by the Arkansas Constitution will preclude him from seeking a third term. The governor who was re-elected in 2018 with 61.9% of the vote, Gavin Newsom, is running for a second term.
On September 14, 2021, a recall election was held. The governor who was reelected in 2018 with 53.4% of the vote, Jared Polis, is running for a second term. Ned Lamont, who received 49.4% of the vote to win reelection in 2018, is running for reelection. The governor who was reelected in 2018 with 49.6% of the vote, Ron DeSantis, is running for a second term. Andrew Gillum, a former mayor of Tallahassee and the Democratic candidate for governor in 2018, decided against running against DeSantis again.
The governor who was reelected in 2018 with 50.2% of the vote, Brian Kemp, is running for a second term. Governor David Ige was elected to a second term in 2018 with 62.7% of the vote. Governor Brad Little, who was reelected in 2018 with 59.8% of the vote, is running for a second term. Despite McGeachin’s announcement of a challenge, Little won the Republican primary against the incumbent lieutenant governor. J. B. Pritzker, the Illinois governor who was reelected in 2018 with 54.5% of the vote, is running for a second term. Candidates for the Republican party include Richard Irvin, Darren Bailey, Gary Rabine, Paul Schimp, and Jesse Sullivan. Bailey prevailed in the vote.
8. Kim Reynolds took over as governor on May 24, 2017, the day Terry Branstad announced his resignation. With 50.3% of the vote, she was re-elected in 2018 to a second term in office. Governor Laura Kelly, a Democrat, is running for re-election after winning 48% of the vote in 2018. On the Republican side, she is opposed by Kansas’s attorney general, Derek Schmidt. Governor Janet Mills, a Democrat who won with 50.9% of the vote in 2018, is running for re-election to a second term.  Former governor and Republican Paul LePage have launched his candidacy.
Their respective primaries were handily won by both candidates. 2018 saw the reelection of Republican Governor Larry Hogan, who received 55.4% of the vote. Governor Charlie Baker was elected to a second term in 2018 with 66.6% of the vote. Governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, is running for re-election after winning 53.3% of the vote in 2018. Tim Walz, the governor who was reelected in 2018 with 53.8% of the vote, is running for reelection. Pete Ricketts, the governor, was re-elected in 2018 with 59% of the vote. In 2022, a term restriction imposed by the Nebraska Constitution will preclude him from seeking reelection a third time.
The governor who was reelected in 2018 with 54.3% of the vote, Kevin Stitt, is running for a second term. Governor Kate Brown took over after John Kitzhaber’s resignation on February 18, 2015. 2018 saw the reelection of Governor Tom Wolf with 57.8% of the vote. Democratic governor Gina Raimondo resigned on March 2, 2021, and was succeeded by Governor Daniel McKee. On January 24, 2017, Governor Henry McMaster took control after Nikki Haley resigned. In 2018, he was re-elected to a full term with 54% of the vote.
Kristi Noem, the governor, received 51% of the vote to win re-election to a second term in 2018. Governor Bill Lee, who was reelected in 2018 with 59.6% of the vote, is running for a second term. Greg Abbott, the governor, was re-elected in 2018 with 55.8% of the vote. Republican Governor Phil Scott is running for re-election for a fourth term after winning re-election in 2020 with 68.5% of the vote. Tony Evers, a Democrat who was first elected governor in 2018 with 49.5% of the vote, is seeking reelection. Following his victory in 2018 with 67.1% of the vote, Governor Mark Gordon is running for re-election.
2022 US Gubernatorial Elections Odds for Michigan & Florida
|Michigan Governor||Florida Governor|
|(D) Gretchen Whitmer -1250||(R) Ron Desantis -2500|
|(R) Tudor Dixon +700||(D) Charlie Crist +1000|