December 21, 2020


Political Odds – Georgia Senate Runoff Races are Tightening

Before the November election; no one was paying much attention to Georgia. Although the belief was that it would be a close race there. That indeed proved to be accurate; with the state eventually turning blue and going for Joe Biden by around 14,000 votes. It was a result that upset the political odds; but there may yet be more drama to come in the Peach State. Georgia is one of the states that requires the winner of the Senate; to win at least 50% of the vote. If that does not happen, then we head into a runoff. There were a pair of Senate races on the ballot in November, with both winners failing to meet the minimum vote requirements. That means that we are now headed for a pair of runoffs, which will be held on Jan. 5 next year.

Who is in the Races? And Why Are They So Important?

Before we get to the people in the races; let’s take a moment to talk about the importance of the results. The Republicans can afford to lose one of the runoffs and still maintain control of the Senate; but that all changes if the Democrats can come out and win both elections. In that scenario, we would have a 50/50 split in the Senate, which would mean that Vice-President Kamala Harris would have the deciding vote, which is crucial for a government looking to push bills through.

The first of the two races sees incumbent David Perdue (Rep.) go against Jon Ossoff (Dem.). In November, Perdue won by around 90,000 votes, but with 49.7% of the vote, he failed to hit the magical 50% required to secure his seat. There was a special election in the other race, with Kelly Loeffler (Rep.) and Raphael Warnock (Dem.) advancing to the runoff.

Given what we know about Georgia; which includes the November results, you would assume that the Republican candidates would be the favorites to win and head to the Senate. The political odds right now reflect that; but those odds have been tightening over the past few weeks and will likely continue to do so; right up until the election.

The belief among political experts is that these races are too close to call.

Make sure to check out some of the early Odds. Courtesy of online oddsmaker
Georgia Senate Runoff – Early Odds to WinOdds
Kelly Loeffler +500
David Perdue +1000
Rafael Warnock+1000
John Ossof+1000

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