China Planned Taiwan Invasion, Alleged Russian Intel Leak Claims

March 18, 2022

China Planned Taiwan Invasion in Fall, Alleged Russian Intel Leak Claims

Taiwan’s top diplomat said he couldn’t speak on the authenticity of a purported Russian intelligence document that claimed Chinese president Xi Jinping had plans to annex the island nation this fall. It could be possible that China Planned Taiwan Invasion?

Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said Wednesday (March 16, 2022) that the country is paying close attention to developments in the possibility of an attack from China and is ready at any time.

“We must always be ready to defend ourselves,” he told reporters in Taipei, “no matter if or when China decides to attack us.”

During a defense committee hearing in the island’s legislature, Wu told lawmakers that he was aware of media reports about the document said to be written by an anonymous analyst with Russia’s Federal Security Service calling themselves “Wind of Change.”

Taipei’s chief of intelligence, Chen Ming-tong, told lawmakers in October 2021, months after Russia begin building up troops along Ukraine’s borders, that an attack by China was unlikely in the next three years, barring an unexpected contingency, until after Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen leaves office.

Biden Administration hardens view of China tilting toward Putin on Ukraine

China’s muted response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has hardened views within the Biden administration that President Xi may be moving closer to supporting Moscow as the conflict continues.

Beijing denies that it has tacitly backed the invasion and Chinese officials have rejected U.S. reports that Russia asked China for financial and military assistance shortly after touching off the war, labeling their disinformation.

Pentagon Assessment

The true nature of China’s relationship with Russia in light of the war in Ukraine was tackled in an assessment of global threats released by the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency.

It found that “China is closely managing its messaging on the conflict, generally backing Russia’s characterization as a conflict ultimately caused by the U.S.-driven NATO expansion and disregard for Russia’s security interests.”

Chinese officials, in turn, have dismissed U.S. allegations that Russia sought military assistance from Beijing, including armed drones, shortly after the invasion began.

Interpreting Beijing

It would be uncharacteristic of China to respond to a Russian request for weapons with an outright “no,” complicating interpretations of Beijing’s intentions, according to a European intelligence official with knowledge of the U.S. assessment. That official said it would make little sense for China to provide significant weaponry.

The Biden administration has also warned Chinese firms not to try to get around Russian trade restrictions the U.S. has imposed on key technologies. Still, it’s not clear exactly what type of China-Russia economic activity would prompt the U.S. to impose sanctions on Beijing.

Consequences of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan

A Chinese ambitious invasion in fall would go against conventional military thinking, which takes into account unfavorable weather conditions across the Taiwan Strait throughout the summer and at least through September.

The Chinese Communist Party’s 20th National Congress, where Xi is expecting to secure a third term, is also scheduled for fall and could begin in October or November.

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