The 2022 midterm elections are only three weeks away, and Americans are starting to get a clearer picture of where things are headed. The national media has put a lot of focus on certain key races that can have a direct impact on the country in the foreseeable future. This time we’re going into details about Arizona & Texas Governors Races.
Arizona & Texas Governors Races
The battle for Congress is moving in the right direction for the Republican Party. After a few difficult months in the summer, Republican voters are coming home.
The shift is starting to be noticeable in the polling data. While the Democratic Party is still favored to retain control of the US Senate, some of the races are close enough for a Republican win to be possible.
The US House of Representatives is now seen as almost out of reach for Democrats. Publicly, leaders on the left still project confidence about keeping the House, but the reality of the polling is less rosy.
When it comes to the 36 races for governors around the country, the two parties are each holding their own. Most red and blue states are staying true to their true nature.
However, there are a few pickup opportunities here and there for the different sides. Arizona is on the toss-up list. Democratic Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs is trying to replace Republican Doug Ducey, who held the post for two terms.
Hobbs is facing MAGA superstar Kari Lake, a former news anchor, who previously supported Barack Obama for president.
In Texas, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking a third term. He is facing Beto O’Rourke, a former rising star in the Democratic Party. Some liberals believe that if one politician can unseat Abbott, O’Rourke is that person. Is this true? Can Lake keep Arizona red?
Those two elections will provide interesting answers for the two parties.
For six years, from 2013 to 2019, O’Rourke represented the 16th congressional district of Texas in the House. The politician from El Paso cultivated a bipartisan image.
This interesting positioning and a close race against Senator Ted Cruz in 2018 pushed many Democrats to see him as the future of the party.
The supporters convinced him to run for president in 2020, but the candidacy never lived up to the hype. Fast forward to 2022, O’Rourke is going after another big office in red Texas.
Many on his side say that only he can make Texas competitive. This idea looks plausible on paper because the former congressman has some great skills.
However, he has not been able to give Abbott some real competition so far. In the average polling, the incumbent is leading by 8.9 percentage points.
There has been a slight improvement for O’Rourke in the last few weeks. However, experts say that the Republican has a 96% chance of winning the November election.
The political futures from JazzSports.ag also go in the same direction. According to the platform, Abbott has -900 odds of keeping his job.
The implied probability, in this case, is at over 90% in favor of the conservative politician. O’Rourke’s odds are currently at +550.
The Republican is the favorite in the race. Mr. O’Rourke has tried to put his opponent on defense by focusing on issues like abortion and guns.
However, the topics have not convinced voters to switch their allegiance. Moreover, Republicans have decided to make immigration and border control significant parts of their agenda.
This is a problem for Democrats around the country because President Joe Biden has not found a way to make progress on those thorny problems.
Additionally, inflation is also impacting local races. Texas shares similarities with Arizona.
Several experts thought that Hobbs would have an easy time taking on Lake because she is a huge supporter of former President Donald Trump.
The media personality has a lot of things in common with the real estate mogul. The evolution of society has played a huge part in Lake’s change of politics.
Just like Trump, she used to support Democratic causes. However, when the MAGA leader became a candidate, she found a messenger closer to where her views were.
Now, she even sounds like an election denier. That is why experts thought she could not win the governorship in a state that is close to being purple.
However, Lake has one main asset, she is very telegenic and knows how to get her point across. The charismatic persona has turned a winnable race for Democrats into a real toss-up.
Moreover, some on the left are now afraid that a win in Arizona next month could launch her career in national politics. They see a potential run for president down the road.
If she wins, Lake could even be on a shortlist for vice president in 2024. Hobbs has called Lake a demagogue and has refused to share a debate stage with her.
All these things have played to Lake’s benefit. She was behind in the polling from the end of July to early October. However, in the past two weeks, Lake has taken a small lead of one percentage point.
A Lake win is evaluated by experts at 54%. JazzSports.ag has her odds at -140 versus +110 for Hobbs. In terms of probability, this figure is close to 59%.
In short, Lake’s lead is very slim, but very few thought she would even be in this position. The campaign season has already been a victory for the political novice.
During the summer, the Democrats felt they could accomplish something historical by improving their standing around the country. Gun control and abortion rights fueled this optimism.
However, after Labor Day, Republican candidates started to improve in the polls, and the gains vanished. Texas and Arizona are following the same pattern. That is why Abbott and Lake are gaining ground on their left-leaning opponents.
Immigration and inflation have become the top concerns for voters. Can Democrats rebound in the upcoming weeks?
It is still possible, but the odds are increasingly moving in the other direction for the party of Mr. Biden. JazzSports.ag helps keep track of those odds to make the right move.
2022 US Gubernatorial Elections Odds for Arizona & Texas
|Arizona Governor||Texas Governor|
|(R) Kari Lake -160||(R) Greg Abbott -900|
|(D) Katie Hobbs: +125||(D) Beto O’Rourke +550|
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