October 13, 2020

Joe Biden


This takes place as the incumbent POTUS heads to Florida to participate in a massive rally with thousands of adoring fans; meanwhile, Joe Biden few public appearances are looking terribly pale in comparison. Will Biden lackluster campaign hurt his presidential chances? Are both the polls and betting odds wrong on the outcome of the upcoming 2020 election?

Before we go on, let us take a look at some of the hottest betting odds, courtesy of classic online betting brand

2020 Presidential Winner – Betting Odds *

Donald Trump+180
Joe Biden-205

Democrats win presidency + 51 Senate + 218 House Seats – Betting Odds *

Democrats sweep+105
Any other combination-130

Donald Trump’s share of Popular Votes in 2020 Election – Betting Odds *

Over 55.01%+1650
50.01% to 55%+565
45.01% to 50%-130
40% to 45.01%+165
Under 40%+550

*Odds are subject to change.

The Odd Case of the 2020 Election Betting Odds

Ever since Biden became the official Democratic nominee for the 2020 presidential race, a strong belief in his “electability” qualities made pundits believe that he was the man to dethrone Trump, pushing the current president to the runner-up position in the race. In following this trend, the betting odds have kept Biden in the lead, albeit with tiny gains during the last couple of months: Trump is now trailing at +180 ml, next to Biden’s confident -205 price.

Is Biden’s eventual win a REAL certainty? Or, are we headed to another major shock caused by inaccurate polling, just like the one experienced back in 2016?  Politics-betting experts think we might just see a repeat of the last presidential election, and that the signs are all out there, for those who care to see.

Is Trump a Good Bet?

With or without the support of the news media apparatus, which mostly showed a modicum of disdain for Trump’s chances of success, most polling conducted back in 2016 -especially that held during the previous months before the election- pointed out to a constant lead by Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, lasting all the way until it became apparent they’d been utterly wrong by election night.

Trump’s decisive wins in key states, followed by those odd Red victories in traditionally Blue states, made it clear that the polling standards used at the time had been slightly off, if not just plain wrong, however, those very same organizations conducting voting screenings for this current election appear to be making the exact same mistakes, restricting their questionnaires to voters with specific educational backgrounds and social strata, limiting their chances to produce truly accurate data. 

Bookmakers, meanwhile, are eating the bait: Trump’s 2-to-1 odds might just be one of the safest future bets of the next month. We might not be seeing the sky-high payout of the 2016 election, but at +180 ml, Trump’s second run chances still make a pretty good wager.

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