2021 Virginia Gubernatorial Election Odds

November 1, 2021

2021 virginia gubernatorial election odds

Tuesday, November 2, is set to deliver an interesting outcome for bettors involved in the 2021 race for Virginia governor. Republican Glenn Youngkin has forced Democrat Terry McAuliffe into the race of his life. Let’s talk about the Virginia Gubernatorial Election Odds.

Youngkin keeps race close against McAuliffe in the Virginia Gubernatorial Election Odds

When McAuliffe announced in December 2020 that he was running to have his old job back, many observers saw him as the favorite to beat. At the time, the prediction seemed like a wise bet.

After all, the 64-year-old politician was a decent governor and left office in January 2018 with solid approval ratings. McAuliffe could not run for reelection because Virginia laws prevent governors from serving consecutive terms.

His performance was good enough for Democrat Ralph Northam to succeed him at the Executive Mansion in Richmond, Virginia. Almost one year after his entrance into the race, McAuliffe is no longer the safe bet.

According to the latest political futures from Jazz Sports, Mr. Youngkin has -105 odds of winning the Virginia governor election Tuesday. McAuliffe is at -115 to win the race that is setting record-breaking bets for an election at this level.

While the Democrat is still ahead, many in the party say the race is too close for comfort. The implied probability for a win is only at 53.5 percent for McAuliffe versus 51.2 for the Republican.

The momentum in the race for Virginia governor has shifted quite a bit in the past month after the last debate between the two candidates on September 28. It moved from a +3.5 lead for McAuliffe in the polling average on that day to a +0.6 advantage for Youngkin today.

Youngkin turns election into referendum on education

The 4.1-point swing in the race is associated with many factors. The main one is the fact that the Republican was able to make the election about local issues, especially education.

McAuliffe gave his opponent the perfect opening at the debate when he claimed that parents should not have a big say in what is taught at schools. Youngkin was able to link parental rights and fights about schools.

This development made it possible for the opposition to critical race theory and same-sex transgender issues to return to the forefront and energize the base of the Republican Party. Interestingly, Youngkin has managed to attract some parents in the middle with his constant focus on education.

McAuliffe fails to make Donald Trump an issue

McAuliffe has never found an efficient way to respond to the attacks. The Democrat kept linking his rival to former President Donald Trump

While the anti-Trump message was potent for Democrats when he was in office, it might have lost some of its appeal. McAuliffe confirmed that on Sunday when he suddenly started saying Tuesday’s election is not about Mr. Trump.

This is a significant reversal in messaging. The candidate had spent months saying that Youngkin was nothing but a mini-Trump.

McAuliffe faces difficult national mood and lower Biden approval rating

Another factor that played in the private equity multi-millionaire’s favor is the current national mood. At the same time, Youngkin avoided attaching himself to national Republican politics and Mr. Trump in particular.

He found a very useful foil in President Joe Biden. The leader of the free world has bungled the Afghanistan withdrawal over the summer, and his job approval rating has never recovered.

Gas prices are rising, and inflation is becoming more problematic, and Biden has not offered concrete answers to these issues. In addition to those various crises, the situation at the U.S. southern border has become worrisome.

Moreover, Biden, who was elected to bring calm and competency to the White House, has not yet delivered. To make matters worse, popular items of his agenda are stuck in Congress because progressive and moderate Democrats have trust issues.

While the coronavirus pandemic appears to be under control, Americans and Virginians remain anxious about getting back to a sense of normalcy. Since Democrats are in control, voters are blaming them for their problems.

McAuliffe is paying a hefty price for this environment. The former chairman of the Democratic National Committee also chose not to distance himself from the president, who remains a popular political figure in left-leaning circles.

McAuliffe misses the mark

A few critics of the Democratic candidate say that he deserves more blame for a closer than expected race. They see McAuliffe as a flawed candidate who only won in 2013 because his opponent at the time, Ken Cuccinelli, was too extreme.

Those people also said that he left office with lower support from registered voters than his predecessors, Bob McDonnell, Tim Kaine, and Mark Warner. While victory is still possible, the left is already trying to understand what went wrong.

The odds at Jazz Sports point to a close race with McAuliffe having the tiniest of lead (-115 versus -105) despite the conventional wisdom pointing to Youngkin as the one with momentum. The state’s nature is why some Democrats remain hopeful that they will prevail on Tuesday.

If Virginia turns red, does it mean anything for the 2022 midterms?

Virginia has become a blueish state in the past decade. At the presidential level, Barack Obama (twice), Hillary Clinton, and Biden have all won the Commonwealth.

Democrats have won the governor’s race four times in the last five elections. The state’s two U.S. senators are also members of the Democratic Party.

Moreover, some have argued that data in early voting looks solid for McAuliffe.

However, it is not clear if that will be enough to contain a red wave on election day.

The Virginia governor election is important for the country because many experts see it as a bellwether for what is coming in the 2022 midterms. When McDonnell won comfortably in 2009, it was a big warning sign for Democrats who took a shellacking in 2010.

If McAuliffe wins, Democrats will be able to breathe and tell themselves that next year is salvageable despite the dire predictions about them losing power in the U.S. House of Representatives and maybe the Senate.

Tuesday has some other exciting electoral races around the country. However, most of the political world will be glued to what happens in Virginia. The two sides are already sweating about the meaning of it all.

Most bettors believe this race is going down to the wire, and millions of dollars are pouring into the market. Jazz Sports is the place to join in the action.

Virginia Gubernatorial Election Odds by JazzSports

Terry McAuliffe -115

Glenn Youngkin -105

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