October 28, 2020



We’re about a week away from the 2020 presidential election in the United States. Betting enthusiasts around the world – not to mention the populations of many of the world’s nations – have their eyes on the outcome, as to whether Donald J. Trump will get four more years as President, or whether the Democratic opponent, Joseph R. Biden, will win – or one of the small-party candidates, the Libertarian Jo Jorgenson or the Green candidate, Howie Hankins, which would represent a major upset.

Early voting is already underway. Let’s take a look at U.S. election odds going into next week, focusing on the presidential race. Odds are courtesy of JAZZSports.ag

Political Futures*

Odds to Win the 2020 Presidential RaceOdds
Republican Candidate (Donald J. Trump)160
Democratic Candidate (Joseph R. Biden)-185
Independent Candidates (any other winner)5000
Odds to Win the Popular VoteOdds
Republicans Win Popular Vote700
Democrats Win Popular Vote-1250

*Odds are subject to change.

U.S. Election Odds Review:

You might be wondering why the odds on these two props are different. In the United States, you can win the popular vote and lose the presidential elections, because the United States government bases its presidential elections on something called the Electoral College. Each state gets a number of electors, based on the number of representatives in the House of Representatives, plus their two senators. The District of Columbia, which is not a state but houses the nation’s capital, has three electoral votes, for a total of 538.

This increases the voting power of the less populous states, ensuring that candidates pay attention to the interests of more than just the large cities. It also leads to a more conservative tilt to election results, as rural voters tend to have disproportionate power. So when Republican George W. Bush won in 2000, and when Trump won in 2016, despite losing the popular vote, they were just the two latest candidates to win the presidency despite losing the popular vote.

In the current polling, former Vice President Biden leads Trump in the polling, not just nationally but in most of the “battleground” states – the states that are not heavily Republican or Democratic in their voting. If you’re wanting to bet on U.S. election odds, you’ll want to visit polling expert sites to see daily trends.

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